Social and Health Effects of Changes in Alcohol Prices: A Research Collaborative


Each year, about 79,000 deaths in the United States are attributable to excessive alcohol use.

A team of highly accomplished interdisciplinary public health researchers from Johns Hopkins University, the University of Florida, Boston Medical Center and the University of Illinois at Chicago have formed a research collaborative to inform the translation of the recommendations of the Guide to Community Preventive Services, which endorses alcohol tax increases as an effective means of reducing harmful use of alcohol, and others into public health practice by providing data, analysis, tools, and case studies to assist communities and policy makers seeking to influence alcohol pricing.

To support the collaborative’s aims, the UIC team is developing an online tool for modeling societal impacts of changes in state alcohol prices.  Extensive econometric and other scientific studies will be used to assess the relationship between state alcohol prices and various economic measures, including beverage sales; excise and sales tax revenues; and economic costs (including health care, criminal justice, and lost productivity costs).  In addition, sophisticated macroeconomic models available from Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) will be used to develop new evidence on the impact of alcoholic beverage taxes and prices on employment in five states.  These states will be selected based on the contribution that alcoholic beverage manufacturing and distribution makes to the state economy, ranging from little-to-none to significant. The final model will be similar to those developed for assessing the impact of changes in the price of tobacco and sugar-sweetened beverages on employment. Alternative specifications for the model will be developed based on how the new tax revenues would be spent (e.g., designating it for prevention and treatment, devoting it to income tax relief or spending it in the same manner as general government revenue).

The results of these analyses will then be used to develop an on-line tool on the website of the Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth, allowing state health agencies and other organizations to assess the relationship between state alcohol prices and various economic and health measures.

Research Product(s)

See how a tax increase on alcohol could affect your state:


Research Partner(s)

Boston Medical Center
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
University of Florida

Affiliated Center/Program

Principal investigator
Funding Agency

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Contract No. 200-2011-40800) through the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Start date
End date
Total award
About this grant

The funding period for this work was extended by one year with no additional money.

Parent Study
Social and Health Effects of Changes in Alcohol Prices: A Research Collaborative
PI of Parent Study
David Jernigan, PhD
The Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University

Related publications

Naimi TS, Daley JI, Xuan Z, Blanchette JG, Chaloupka FJ, Jernigan DH. Who would pay for state alcohol tax increases in the United States? Prev Chronic Dis. 2016 May 19;13:E67. [See abstract.]

Xuan Z, Chaloupka FJ, Blanchette JG, Nguyen TH, Heeren TC, Nelson TF, Naimi TS. The relationship between alcohol taxes and binge drinking: evaluating new tax measures incorporating multiple tax and beverage types. Addiction. 2015 Mar;110(3):441-50. [See abstract.]

Nelson TF, Xuan Z, Babor TF, Brewer RD, Chaloupka FJ, Gruenewald PJ, et al. Efficacy and the strength of evidence of U.S. alcohol control policies. Am J Prev Med. 2013 Jul;45(1):19-28. [See abstract.]